Live on Today show: how the relationship between people and machines is becoming emotional
This morning I was interviewed on the Australian national breakfast television program the Today show, together with our new family pet, the robot dinosaur Pleo. The video is below.
[UPDATE:] This TV segment is also available on the NineMSN website in better quality.
While it makes for a nice fun TV segment, I actually think that there is something fundamentally important at work here. As a futurist, one of the most important issues I consider is the evolving relationship between people and technology. Throughout history, that relationship has often been problematic, with notably the Luddites smashing machines, and more recently just about everyone having experienced immense frustration with their computers not doing what they’re supposed to do.
Following the ground laid by Sony’s robotic dog Aibo, Pleo is the first generation of commercial robotic pets that acts so we can form genuine emotional ties with it. I’ve written before about emotional robots such as Paro the seal and been interviewed in Newsday on how emotional robots are used to great effect in therapy and aged care. Pleo has reached the threshold of being a fun and interactive “lifeform” (as the manufacturer Ugobe describes it), and also is highly affordable at US$350 (which may seem expensive for a toy, but is very cheap compared with for example visits to the vet for real live pets).
FriendFeed has the potential to transcend social networks and catalyze collaborative filtering
Over the last week FriendFeed has being the hot topic of the online world, soaring in popularity after an already strong start from its launch on February 25. FriendFeed allows you to see all of the online activities of the people you like or admire, who choose to share that data. So for example I have created a FriendFeed for Ross Dawson that brings together a summary of blog posts I’ve written, what I’ve bookmarked on del.icio.us, shared on StumbleUpon and Google Reader, videos I’ve posted on YouTube, pictures on Flickr, profile changes on LinkedIn, and songs I’ve loved on Last.FM. There are currently a total of 28 services that people can include in profiling what they are doing online.
On one level, this provides a quite staggering depth of visibility into what people are doing, and ultimately who they are as people. I’ve written before about the role of exhibitionism in allowing Web 2.0 to flourish, and this is evident once again in FriendFeed. Of course, it is supposed to be primarily about keeping track of your friends’ rather than strangers’ lives, and the reality is that all of this information is available anyway. It’s just that it has been brought about into one place. Not just that, it is a community itself, allowing comments and other ways to respond to people’s content directly, rather than going back to the source.
While there are other competitors in this space, including SocialThing! (see ReadWriteWeb’s comparison), the availability – and success – of these services is a fundamentally important transition in the online world. The reason why Facebook has been so successful is that it allows people a quick way of keeping in touch with what their friends are up to. Once either all the feeds are available from people’s current social network activities, or people start updating their profiles and activities in a more open format, social networks will be a completely different space.
Why we will all have robot pets in the future
Robots have been perhaps the most-predicted and least-realized aspect of our future. Decades ago we believed that robots would soon be part of the household, doing useful tasks for humans finally able to laze about rather than doing chores. This has not yet come to pass, though washing machines, for example, are arguably task-specific robots. What was not so expected was that robots would be something we would bond to emotionally.
I’ve written and been interviewed about a variety of aspects of the future of robots, including therapeutic robots, emotional robots in aged care, and the economic role of robots. Now that robots have reached a sufficient level of maturity, we have our very own robot pet in the family.
My wife Victoria Buckley, inspired by Where’s My Jetpack, a book she gave me for Christmas, recently bought a Pleo, the latest generation of robotic pet. Pleo is a robotic dinosaur that behaves like a domestic pet – curious, cute, cuddly, and responsive to interaction and people’s emotions.
The makers of Pleo, Ugobe, have a neat site where users can set up their own Pleo blogs (plogs). Victoria has been writing the adventures of our Pleo (named Titus) on her plog, worth reading for the cute photos of Titus with our eighteen-month old daughter Leda alone!
Below is a brief video (1:36 min) of my thoughts on the role of robot pets in our lives.
Device convergence in our pockets
An interesting article in the Sydney Morning Herald titled Is that a computer in your pocket? examines how mobile phones, PDAs, portable computers and more are converging. It quotes me as follows:
According to Ross Dawson, chairman of the Future Networks think tank, other obstacles will also frustrate users looking for a portable mobile computing solution. The first is the limitation of existing small screen technologies to give a satisfying viewing experience. The second is the need for a more efficient means of inputting data on the device or through accessories such as fold-away keyboards.
He adds that the usability of a mobile for computing functions is also dependent on whether you must hold it to your ear or not.
“When you do that you cannot see it. Although more people are using ear buds or Bluetooth, they are still the minority. If you are making appointments when speaking to someone you need to have a separate interface”.
While there are many issues at play here, the interfaces to mobile devices are probably the most important factor in how they will be used in the future. I’ve written before about the role of video glasses and portable displays in making mobile devices more embedded in our lives. Similar issues of interfaces and immersion apply in home entertainment and living online.
I absolutely believe that mobile devices will be central to our lives and even entertainment, however first the interfaces for input and output must become seamless and compelling. The current generation of mobile devices and peripherals is on the verge of that becoming reality.
Will libraries disappear in 2019?
Slate magazine has published a very nice slideshow titled “Borrowed Time” about the past and future of libraries. On the final slide it refers to the Extinction Timeline created by What’s Next and Future Exploration Network, where we had put 2019 for the extinction of libraries. Slate writes:
Ross Dawson, a business consultant who tracks different customs, devices, and institutions on what he calls an Extinction Timeline, predicts that libraries will disappear in 2019. He’s probably right as far as the function of the library as a civic monument, or as a public repository for books, is concerned. On the other hand, in its mutating role as urban hangout, meeting place, and arbiter of information, the public library seems far from spent. This has less to do with the digital world—or the digital word—than with the age-old need for human contact.
Absolutely we are shifting into a world where experiences and physical interactions are becoming more important than ever. For example, shopping in shops will never disappear. We will create new spaces where we can meet and interact. We are yet to see whether the spaces where people spend their time are those based around books and collected information.
Logo competition for DataPortability.org: how to get the best
I love this kind of thinking. DataPortability.org, the extremely important web initiative I have written about before, needs a logo. Redhat claims that its existing logo is too similar to theirs.
Chris Saad, the chair of DataPortability.org, has launched an open competition to design the new logo, with the winner determined by open voting on the web from a short list selected by the steering group. This being a highly prominent initiative that is potentially enormously valuable to the whole ‘net community should attract some talented people. However Chris has also got a whole host of prominent people and companies who support the initiative to kick in prizes, to in fact make this a very attractive proposition to the winner. Prizes currently offered (with more continuing to come in) include:
Initial submisssions
Current prize list:
New Australian broadband chip could change media distribution and home entertainment
The Sydney Morning Herald reports that NICTA – Australia’s peak national technology research and commercialization body – has developed a new chip which could have a significant impact on the technology and media field.
The key features of the chip are:
* Very fast: 5Gbps (an HD movie in seconds)
* Short range: Up to 10 meters
* Small: 5mm by 5mm chip
* Inexpensive: Less than $9 in mass production
* Low power: Uses less than 2 watts
* Uses 60Ghz spectrum: faster and less crowded
* Out soon: available in one year
* Cute name: GiFi
A few of the potential applications:
* Download an HD movie (or any other content) to a mobile phone or PDA at a kiosk on your way home, then transfer it to your home entertainment system
* Link all your home devices, including PC and home entertainment so every device has access to the Internet and content can be transferred between devices and across rooms.
* Modular PCs, with CPU, screen, keyboards, drives, mouse all separate devices.
Just two days ago GigaOM wrote about the potential of using 60GHz spectrum and some of the obstacles. It seems that the Australian team has nailed them. GigaOM now says: “I’m impressed,” and also points to similar efforts from Vubiq and SiBeam.
I’m looking forward to this technology being available. Let’s forget Megabits per second and start talking Gigabits per second.
User Filtered Content (UFC) is what Web 2.0 is about… and Digg is a UFC site
At the Crunchy awards last week Digg was named best User Generated Content (UGC) site. As many people pointed out since then, Digg is in fact not a user generated content site, since the people don’t submit content to the site, but links to other sites.
Allen Stern suggests that Digg is a UGC aggregator. Josh Catone thinks that UGC is perfectly accurate for Digg.
Back in 2006 I posted the notes to my speech at the Influence conference on Web 2.0 and User Filtered Content, pointing out that Web 2.0 is largely about users collectively filtering content after they have generated it. Earlier in the year the content section of our Future of Media Strategic Framework showed how both media and users create and filter content. Creating and filtering content are different activities.
I think it’s well time that User Filtered Content comes into its own as a term, and isn’t confused with User Generated Content.
See our latest Trend Map! What to expect in 2008 and beyond….
Nowandnext.com and Future Exploration Network have once again collaborated to create a trend map for 2008 and beyond.
Our Trend Map for 2007+ had a major impact, with over 40,000 downloads, fantastic feedback (“The World’s Best Trend Map. Ever.” “I got shivers” “Amazing” “Fascinating” “Magnifique” etc. etc.), and inspired several other trend maps including Information Architects’ first map of web trends.
While last year’s map was based on the London tube map, the 2008 map is derived from Shanghai’s underground routes. Limited to just five lines, the map uncovers key trends across Society, Politics, Demographics, Economy, and Technology.
Click on the map below to get the full pdf.
Trends mentioned in the map include:
Interview on SBS TV World news tonight: How Skype changes how telecom firms add value
I’ve just been interviewed by SBS TV for a segment on Skype, which will air on their World News tonight at 6:30pm. There was no particular news that prompted the segment, which simply looks at what Skype is, and in particular how it is impacts the telecommunications industry.
In the interview I repeatedly emphasized how telecommunications companies have for over a century dramatically overcharged for communication, holding back progress, business, and personal relationships. Only now that there is a free alternative are international phone calls getting a fraction closer to their actual cost. Connectivity is a human and social right, which fortunately is now available to anyone with an Internet connection or who can afford 30 minutes in an Internet café. In order for telecommunications companies to continue to be as vastly profitable as they have over the years, they must find news ways of creating value. One way is to add value to the basic connectivity services they provide. Another is to shift into adjacent businesses such as content, services, or to leverage their existing relationships into new areas.
Last year I wrote about some of the strategic issues for how telecommunications firms reposition themselves, in the context of mobile search. I’ll expand on this theme anon.
